Two characteristics with the Indian automotive market stand out in 2022: output there hit new heights of almost 5.1 million, and it was dubbed one of the few fastest-growing markets after Covid. For major players like Hyundai, Skoda, Kia, and Suzuki, the stakes in India have only increased. These increases in sales and production were only made feasible by pent-up demand and recent improvements in the supply of semiconductor chips.
In retrospect, I'm pleased with the tech trends I identified in my 2017–18 report. The following are the top three trends that were noted:
[1] India will promote the use of electric vehicles (EVs)
India wants to produce up to 31 GW of electricity, of which 40% will come from renewable sources, and cut its oil usage to just 3% by 2030 (it was 6.6% in 2016–17). The National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP), the Automotive Mission Plan (AMP) 2016–26, and the Faster Adoption & Manufacturing of EV (FAME) brought out several government perspectives on EV. After reading, I placed a wager that at least 10% of industry sales will be electric vehicles by 2022, taking into account how Indian consumers react to new technology and on-road charging help. According to information on Vaahan, a web portal run by the Ministry of Roads and Transport, EV sales as a whole increased 210% YoY in 2022 to 10,03,026 units.
In order to lessen pollution, there were two fuel options in 2017: EV and CNG. In 2017–18, 2- and 3-wheeled vehicles adopted EV more quickly than commercial vehicles. Several companies, including Smartron, Ather, Mahindra, and Hero, worked on batteries and designs throughout the 2017–18 period. According to a December report from Autocar, two-wheelers would account for 62% of sales in 2022 and three-wheelers, 33%.
[2] Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS)
Consumers in India were unfamiliar with the term "ADAS," which often refers to a combination of hardware and software for features like adaptive cruise control, lane departure warning, traffic assist, and collision avoidance. Radar, cameras, sensors, and software together let the vehicle make the best decisions, even employing artificial intelligence for some features. Given the vision outlined in AMP by our Union minister Shri. Nitin Gadkari, my wager was that ADAS would be present in the majority of high-end vehicles by 2024. According to estimates from 2016–17, 41.5% of deaths were attributed to excessive speeding, especially on highways and motorways, and 47.9% of deaths were caused by negligent driving. It made perfect sense to develop policies requiring automakers to include these measures. But, my report met with mixed reactions as driving in Indian cities was (and is) a hassle as no one follows lanes. So having features like lane departure or traffic assist will not help and made no sense in 2017-18.
In 2022, most of the ADAS features are already available in passenger vehicle segment (brands like MG, Mahindra have those) and would become norm by 2025. It was estimated to be a $65 B revenue by 2025 with some companies like netradyne, TATA, Mahindra, HorusI and Hi-Tech Robostic Systemz already innovating in this domain in 2017-18.
[C] Connected Vehicles (CV)
Connected Vehicles includes features like auto-toll payments, easier fleet management, in-vehicle infotainment and connected-car cyber security. In 2014-15 Union Minister Shri. Nitin Gadkari introduced Fastag for highways/expressways and adoption rate was very low, but by 2024-25 I expect the auto-toll payment to be applicable at toll-gates within states/cities and auto rescue calls to police/hospitals to be norm in passenger vehicles.
In 2022, connected vehicles are part of passenger vehicles like Kia and MG. Hyundai Venue comes with BlueLink connected technology with geo-fencing, speed alerts, SOS, panic notifications, destination sharing, and road-side assistance. Nissan India KICKS comes equipped with NissanConnect connected car technology enabling smartwatch connectivity with lots of features such as tow alerts and service reminders.
Conclusion
These 3 trends we discussed above will continue to grow in India during 2022-30. Few other advancements we can foresee are multiple airbags, flex engines, shared mobility, automated challan systems at highways/expressways even by states (not just NHAI). Consumers’ new habit of using tailored solutions will lead to new segments of shared-vehicles designed for very specific needs by 2028-30. Despite all the advancements, I don't feel we will see much of autonomous cars / commercial vehicles on Indian roads by 2030.
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